Impact of Hurricane Helene: Duke FinTech Students Assess Vulnerability in Western NC Counties

12/19/24 FinTech

Led by Dr. Jimmie Lenz and Professor John Fimbel, a group of FinTech students delivered an assessment brief to the CEO and President of the NC Bankers Association about Hurricane Helene.

Impact of Hurricane Helene: Duke FinTech Students Assess Vulnerability in Western NC Counties

In addition to classes, a group of Duke FinTech students decided to take another project. After hearing the call from the North Carolina Bankers Association (NCBA) to assess areas of Western NC needing support after Hurricane Helene, students jumped at the chance to be part of the project. Led by Dr. Jimmie Lenz and Professor John Fimbel, a group of eight students used their data analysis and creative problem-solving skills to present an Assessment Brief to the President & CEO of the NCBA, Peter Gwaltney.

The students started by providing context on the impact of Hurricane Helene on Western NC. Using precipitation, energy, and forest data, the student identified each of the 26 counties in Western NC as either “Most Impacted,” “Moderately Impacted,” and “Least Impacted.” They identified six counties as “Most Impacted,” six counties as “Moderately Impacted,” and 14 counties as “Least Impacted.” From there, they then did a lookback analysis on factors such as businesses, population, income, and housing pre-Helene to define resiliency.

A map of Western North Carolina shaded according to percent population change from 2013 to 2022. Darker blues indicate a larger population change. Data provided by the U.S. Census.

The students categorized the population change into four categories: High growth (>10% growth), moderate growth (5% to 10% growth), low growth (0% to 5% growth), and population decline (<0% growth). Using Census data from 2013 to 2022, the students found that most of the counties were in population decline, which includes three counties identified as “Most Impacted.” Students also looked at the distribution of individuals between 18 and 29 years of age to individuals over 66 years of age, finding individuals over 66 contributed the most to the population change in the counties.

A map of Western North Carolina shaded according to median income percent change from 2013 to 2022. Darker blues indicate a larger percent change. Data provided by the U.S. Census.

A map of Western North Carolina shaded according to poverty rate of change from 2013 to 2022. Darker blues indicate a larger percent change. Data provided by U.S. Census.

When analyzing the median income change of the counties, the students classified the counties into the four categories: High growth (>50% income change), moderate growth (40% to 50% income change), low growth (30% to 40% income change), and minimal growth (<30% income change). Using Census data from 2013 to 2022, the students found that most of the counties had a moderate growth in median income, which includes four of the “Most Impacted” counties. They also analyzed the change in poverty rate from 2013 to 2022, classifying the counties into four categories: High decline (<-30% change), moderate decline (-30% to -20% change), low decline (-20% to -10% change), and minimal decline (> -10% change). The students found that most of the counties were in high decline, which includes three of the “Most Impacted” counties.

A map of western North Carolina shaded according to medium homeowner-to-renter ratio from 2013 to 2022. Darker blues indicate a higher medium ratio. Data provided by the U.S. Census.

A map of western North Carolina shaded according to home value growth from 2013 to 2022. Darker greens indicate a higher growth. Data provided by the U.S. Census.

A map of western North Carolina shaded according to the average home price from 2013 to 2022. Darker blues indicate a higher average home price. Data provided by the U.S. Census.

A map of western North Carolina shaded according to the average rent price from 2013 to 2022. Darker oranges indicate a higher average rent price. Data provided by the U.S. Census.

The students also did a housing analysis, in which they analyzed homeowner to renter ratio, home value growth, home value to income growth disparity, and rent burden. For five counties, the homeowner to renter ratio was low (<2), indicating a high renter concentration and lack of affordable housing for ownership. There is also slow growth in three counties, indicating a lack of economic diversity or poor infrastructure. This makes these counties less attractive to investors and businesses. When looking at the disparity between home price to income, the students found three counties had a large disparity (>20%). These counties likely experience social inequality and are vulnerable to market shock. Lastly, six counties were identified as having a high rent burden (>20%).

A dot plot of western North Carolina, marking small businesses (< $500K in annual sales). The dot colors represent the annual sales. Data provided by the NC Commerce Department.

A dot plot of western North Carolina, marking large businesses (> $10M in annual sales). The dot colors represent the annual sales. Data provided by the NC Commerce Department.

When analyzing the distribution of businesses in Western NC, the students found the majority were small businesses (annual sales < $500K) compared to large businesses (> $10M). The students also calculated the ratio of small businesses to all businesses, finding that most of the counties had a ratio above 0.6. These counties are likely to be less resilient.

After presenting their analysis, the students presented their go-forward considerations to Peter. They identified three considerations: Build out data, identify assistance available and under development, and determine critical solves. To build out the data, the students suggested looking at resiliency, growth, poverty, vacancy, bankruptcies, and population after the storm. They also suggested identifying constraints and vehicles that can be leveraged for action, such federal/state/county programs/grants/assistance already available or in development. The critical solves the students identified focused on identifying vulnerable populations, jump starting business activity, preventing fraud, and preparing the system for future catastrophes.

If you would like to learn more about our program, please contact us at pratt_fintech@duke.edu.